Global advertising spend is on course to rise 7.4% in 2025 to USD 1.17 trillion, according to the Warc Global Ad Forecast Q3 2025 update.

This marks the first upward revision in more than a year, boosted by a second-quarter windfall ahead of new US trade tariffs. Ad spend is projected to climb a further 8.1% in 2026 and 7.1% in 2027, reaching USD 1.36 trillion - double the pandemic-hit level of 2020, as per the report.

Digital-first platforms dominate

The market continues to consolidate around three dominant players: Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, which together are expected to capture 55.8% of all ad spend outside China in 2025 (USD 524.4 billion). Their share is forecast to rise steadily, topping 60% by 2030.
Overall, nine in ten new ad dollars this year will flow to online-only platforms. Social media, search, and retail media remain the three largest growth engines:
•    Social media attracts the largest share (40.6%) of new spend, up 14.9% to USD 306.4 billion this year, or 26.2% of all global ad spend. By 2027, social media will account for USD 386.9 billion (28.5%).
•    Search advertising will rise 10% to USD 253.2 billion, equal to 21.6% of global ad spend, with Google holding an 86% market share.
•    Retail media is forecast to grow 13.7% this year to USD 175 billion (14.9% share of global spend), with Amazon alone taking USD 62 billion (35.4% of retail media, 5.3% of total ad spend).
Platform dynamics: Meta, TikTok, and Amazon
•    Meta will see ad revenues rise 14.8% to USD 184.1 billion in 2025, representing 60.1% of social media ad spend and 15.7% of global ad spend. Instagram continues to outpace Facebook, though TikTok is growing faster still, averaging 21.6% annual growth through 2027 and raising its share of the social market from 10.3% (2025) to 11.7% (2027).
•    Amazon remains the standout in retail media, with ad revenues projected to triple between 2020 and 2027 as ecommerce-driven advertising accelerates.

Pandemic to post-pandemic shifts

On its current trajectory, the global ad market will have doubled in nominal value between 2020 and 2027. In real terms:
•    Clothing brands (+2.4x), travel & transport (2x), and nicotine brands (2x) have seen the strongest post-pandemic ad recovery.
•    Financial services (+8.6%) and media & publishing (-14.3%) lag behind.
•    Traditional channels face steep real declines: magazines (-49.9%), newspapers (-45.8%), broadcast TV (-35.2%), online classifieds (-25.4%), and broadcast radio (-17.7%).
•    By contrast, podcast ad spend is set to treble, driving online audio growth (+2.5x), while YouTube’s real ad revenue will be 85.4% higher by 2027.

Together, the three companies are projected to record real growth of 89.1%, nearly five times faster than all other media owners combined.  

James McDonald, director of data, intelligence and forecasting, Warc, said, “Global ad spend is growing rapidly, with digital-first platforms capturing almost all the new money. Despite economic headwinds, including disruption to global trade and reduced purchasing power among consumers, brands are doubling down on Meta, Alphabet and Amazon, while emerging players like TikTok are growing fast but from smaller bases.”