As connected TVs (CTV) and streaming take centre stage, linear TV is no longer the anchor of global advertising it once was. WARC’s latest global ad trends report, 'The Changing Shape of TV' reveals a sharp decline in linear TV ad spend over the last decade, a reactive surge in CTV, and a widening gap between how big and small brands approach the medium - forcing advertisers to rethink what qualifies as ‘television’ in 2025. 

Key findings:

•    Linear TV represents just 12.4% of global ad spend, down from 41.3% in 2013  
•    TV audiences are shifting from linear to streaming, particularly younger viewers 
•    CTV ad spend is rising globally, but growth remains US-centric
•    YouTube earned USD 36 billion in ad sales in the US, rivalling legacy TV 
•    The largest brands in the world spend on average 38% of ad budgets on TV; among smaller brands, that falls to 9%
 

The decline of linear TV

Linear TV’s role in the ad economy has eroded dramatically. This year, global ad spend on traditional TV will fall to USD143.9 billion — just 12.4% of total spend, down from 41.3% in 2013. Adjusted for inflation, the drop is more than 50% over the past decade. While linear still accounts for three-quarters of overall TV investment, brands are steadily shifting budgets to connected TV, especially in the US, where CTV already represents nearly half of all viewing.

Streaming surges, led by the US

CTV spend is forecast to hit USD39.9 billion in 2025, with marketers showing strong intent to raise budgets. Growth, however, remains highly US-centric, with APAC and European markets lagging behind. A generational split is also visible: younger audiences are moving decisively away from linear, while older demographics continue to consume hours of broadcast TV daily.

Rising costs, shrinking reach

As audiences fragment, the cost of reaching them is rising. TV CPMs have surged in major markets like the US, UK, and Germany, even as reach continues to decline. In contrast, Brazil and Japan still report CPMs lower than a decade ago, underlining the uneven dynamics across regions.

YouTube’s TV play

YouTube has become the elephant in the living room. In the US, the platform’s share of TV-set viewing is now 12.8%, and its ad revenue in 2024 reached USD36 billion, surpassing all four US broadcast networks combined. While broadcasters experiment with distributing content via YouTube, UK data shows its individual channels deliver modest reach — with kids’ shows dominating the top 20.

A fractured definition of TV

The report underscores how fractured the concept of  'television' has become. Is it defined by the device, the distributor, or the ad format? For consumers, these boundaries blur seamlessly, but for advertisers, fragmentation complicates planning, measurement, and buying strategies. The rise of Big Tech, retail media, and smart TV makers in the ad ecosystem further splinters the market.

The report identifies four forces that will reshape TV.  Retail media is expected to surpass the total TV market in spend, with retail data increasingly used to prove campaign outcomes. Smart TV OEMs are launching their own ad-funded channels, tightening control over distribution. Beyond the 30-second spot, new formats like shoppable overlays, QR codes, and AI-driven interactivity are emerging. With programmatic CTV opening the door, smaller brands- currently allocating just 9% of budgets to TV, versus 38% for global giants - may finally enter the space.

Alex Brownsell, head of content, WARC Media, said: “There’s no doubt that Linear TV’s role is slowly waning, both in viewing and ad spend, as audiences shift to the expanding ecosystem of CTV. However, new players such as Big Tech and retail media sellers hope TV can help them win brand dollars, and smart TV makers are creating their own ad-funded TV channels."

“As consumers move seamlessly from one form of video to the next, advertisers are being challenged to reappraise how they define TV – be it a specific type of video ad format, a media owner or simply the largest screen in the home – with important implications for planning and buying, frequency management and measurement,” he further added.